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How Sharps are Thursday’s MLB Matinee (June 10)

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how sharps are thursday's mlb matinee (june 10)

Braves vs. Phillies Odds, Picks & Predictions: This is Sharps' MLB Matinee on Thursday (June 10th)Recognition:

Mitchell Leff / Getty Images. Pictured: Philadelphia Phillies starting pitcher Zack Wheeler.

6/10/2021, 12:15 PM EDT

  • The latest Major League Baseball odds have the Philadelphia Phillies as -145 favorites for Thursday’s game against the Atlanta Braves.
  • However, fierce bettors with the respect and resources to move lines have played a huge part in shaping that number.
  • Watch them play this National League East matinee in Philadelphia.

MLB Odds: Braves vs. Phillies

Good odds+125
Phillies odds-145
Over under7.5
time1:05 p.m. ET
TVMLB network

With a 15-5 home record, the New York Mets are at the top of the National League East.

Both the Atlanta Braves and the Philadelphia Phillies, 3.5 and 4 games behind the Mets, are doing everything they can despite breaking records below .500. That is also what makes the rubber match of the three-game set on Thursday so important.

Which team wins will position itself in front of the other within the division and at the same time win a half-game against New York that is idle.

The latest major league baseball odds have the Phillies as -145 favorites against the Braves, but it’s important to know that snipers – bettors with the respect and resources to move lines – play a huge role in shaping these Have played number.

So without further ado, let’s examine how smart money has been forcing odds makers to move that line since Wednesday afternoon.

MLB Betting Predictions: Braves vs. Phillies

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Baseball

How to Bet Sunday Night Baseball (June 20)

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how to bet sunday night baseball (june 20)

Cardinals vs. Braves odds

Cardinals odds+108
Good odds-125
Over under7.5 (-104 / -118)
time7:08 p.m. ET
TVESPN
Odds from Sunday and via DraftKings.

Sunday Night Baseball will feature Game 2 of a seven-inning double header between the Cardinals and Braves.

The Braves are already leading 2-0 in this series, with a 4-1 win on Thursday and a 9-1 win on Friday. The two teams were rained out on Saturday and will play a day-night doubles game on Sunday, with Game 1 starting at 2:10 PM ET and the night game starting at 7:08 PM ET.

The Cardinals fell into doldrums in June, with a 5-11 record and a -39 run differential. They currently rank fourth in NL Central, 3.5 games behind the pace, but their expected Pythagorean record is only 31-39.

The Braves are only 7-9 in June, but they have a +6 run gap over that range and an expected season record of 34-33. Despite a bit of bad luck, Atlanta is only 5.5 games behind the division leading Mets in the NL East race.

The Braves (+130) and Cardinals (+110) were each favored to win their respective divisions early in the season, but by then either or both teams will likely miss the playoffs.

So these head-to-head matches are vital for wildcard purposes, even if we still have more than half a season ahead of us.

Who is ahead on Sunday evening?

Cardinals have a fresh but bad bullpen

I mentioned it recently, but it has to be repeated; The most interesting thing about the Cardinals’ 2021 season is their combination of an extremely unfortunate offensive (.294 WOBA, .320 xwOBA) with an equally lucky pitching stick (.309 WOBA, .336 xWOBA).

Those large gaps in expected metrics persist for most of the season, and my guess is that Busch Stadium – what may installed one of these five secret humidors this season – is largely responsible for these differences compared to the expected statistics.

Last week I also talked about how Harrison Bader’s injury skewed the Cardinals’ defensive stance. St. Louis led the entire MLB on Defensive Runs Saved (DRS) last season (+36), but has dropped to ninth place (+20) this year and would be closer to 11th without Bader’s contributions.

The Cardinals’ bullpen (5.03 xFIP, 9.0% K-BB%) is one of the worst in baseball, alongside a starting stick (4.66 xFIP, 9.9% K-BB%), which has a similar level to had to fight. You go too many hitters (league high, 11.4%) but you haven’t necessarily paid for these free baserunners.

Offensively, the Cardinals’ record discipline is closer to the league average, and their .271 BABIP suggests a positive regression in the future regardless of the humidor situation.

The Cardinals’ bullpen is relatively fresh for Sunday’s double headers, as their workhorses (Genesis Cabrera, Giovanny Gallegos, Ryan Helsley and Alex Reyes) have all appeared in over 30 games this season and Andrew Miller has pitched five only once in the past Days.

Kwang Hyun Kim (4.50 xERA, 4.27 xFIP, 4.44 SIERA) has improved his swinging and strikeout rates from last year while maintaining a groundball rate of around 50%.

He’s an average league starting pitcher, and the Braves’ offensive was average against left-handers (101 WRC +).

Braves have elite attacks

Conversely, the Cardinals offensive against left-handers (107 WRC +) did much better than right-handers (84 WRC +), with the option of starting nine right-handers or switching hitters in their regular line-up.

That could pose a problem for Braves starter Drew Smyly, who struggled after a 2020 career year with the Giants this season (5.66 xERA, 4.99 xFIP, 4.68 SIERA). Smyly’s K-BB% is down from 29.7% year over year to 11.8%, his fastball speed has dropped more than a full tick, and his hit rate (44.9%) is at a career high.

Smyly’s 2020 season is the clear outlier in its statistical profile:

Atlanta’s offense (.340 xwOBA) is one of the three expected units, although they will have to replace Marcell Ozuna shortly after his arrest for domestic violence.

Abraham Almonte (.422 wOBA, .374 xwOBA) did an admirable job in the left field, which has been the case since the three-time Gold Glover Ender Inciarte (.253 xwOBA in 2020, .234 xwOBA this season; +1 DRS in this range) is critically important) has had a really hard time doing something and may need to be replaced at some point on their roster.

Atlanta’s Bullpen (4.47 xFIP, 13.9% K-BB%) performed like a bottom 10 unit, but still not as bad as the Cardinals group of relief arms.

They also rank as the bottom 10 defensive team (-2 DRS) and receive remarkable hits from Almonte (-4), Guillermo (-4) and William Contreras (-5).

Surprisingly, the swing from Ozuna (+4) to Almonte was enormous and the Braves had a harder time replacing Ozuna’s glove as his racket.

Despite his reputation for making gruesome moves on the outfield, Ozuna has scored well above average (+14) since moving to the corner full-time in 2017; In 2016 it was a real disaster (-17 DRS) for the Marlins.

The Braves are a flawed team whose starting depth has fallen apart, but their offense (outside of a perfectly healthy Mets or Dodgers team) could be the best in the NL right now. One elite unit is enough to build around, especially if they are willing to add bullpen pieces before the close of trading.

Cardinals Braves Picks

I projected the Cardinals as the 48.4% underdog in this matchup, but the moneyline price looks about right; It would take me +116 or better to bet the Cardinals. The seven-inning format certainly helps, but the longer this game lasts, the better the Braves’ chances of winning.

I put the total of the game at 7.07 runs and forecast a slight value for the under 7.5 at each plus-money prize.

I also set the Cardinals’ F5 odds at 54.5% and forecast their F5 money line to be -106 or better.

Depending on how game 1 of this double header goes and the specific line-up situation for game 2, I can try to increase my risk with one of these bets.

Choose: Cardinals F5 (+100, 0.5u) | Below 7.5 (+100, 0.5u)

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MLB Picks Today – Odds, Betting Lines, Probable Pitchers for Sunday

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St. Louis Cardinals

St. Louis Cardinals’ Nolan Arenado hits a single during the eighth innings of a baseball game against the Milwaukee Brewers in Milwaukee on Thursday, May 13, 2021. (AP Photo / Morry Gash)

  • Check out the best bets in baseball on June 19th when the Cardinals face the Braves in a double-headed second leg
  • Moneyline predictions for the game plus betting trends
  • Please note that baseball double headers are only seven innings this season

Sunday MLB action ends with the St. Louis Cardinals (35-35, 16-20 away) versus the Atlanta Braves (32-35, 19-19 at home) at 7:00 p.m. ET at Truist Park in a Seven -Inning affair that will end a dual leadership for the teams today.

MLB odds show the Braves as a slight -125 home favorite, with the Cardinals moneyline coming back at +108. The over / under is 7.5, which suggests that odds makers don’t have much faith in today’s starting pitchers.

Cardinals vs. Braves odds

June 19th odds.

The pitching matchup isn’t going to give either manager a lot of confidence. Kwang-Hyung Kim plays for the guests while Atlanta counters with Drew Smyly.

Here’s how the likely starters play together on paper this season.

Probable pitchers

teamjugEPOCHWHIP
CardinalsKwang-Hyung Kim3.721.35
BravesDrew Smyly5.631.41

This is the final game in a four-game series for the teams. The Braves dominated the first two on Thursday (4: 0) and Friday (9: 1). In today’s matinee, Atlanta is again a small favorite (-121).

Best bets on Cardinals vs Braves

Both teams were under-challenged in the first third of the season. Both were favorites to win their division on opening day. The Cardinals are currently fourth in NL Central, 3.5 games behind league-leading Milwaukee.

Atlanta is third in NL East but 5.5 games back from the league-leading Mets.

The 32-year-old Korean importer Kwang-Hyun Kim will make his eleventh start to the season (19th appearance of his career). His last appearance was one of his best of the season, with six innings with three hits and one run, but that came at home against the bright marlins.

In his three previous starts, he gave up 10 earned runs in 13.2 innings of work. And his home-street division is worrying: he has a 2.66 ERA at Busch Stadium and a 4.84 ERA everywhere else.

This is the first time in his short career (19 appearances) against Atlanta.

Smyly’s divisions are equally worrying for purposes today. He’s posted 4.66 ERA on the road and a massive 7.54 ERA at home, albeit in just 19.1 innings of work.

His recent starts have been a little encouraging. After being shot at for seven runs in 5.1 innings in Boston on May 26, he has allowed eight earned runs in 13.2 innings on his next three starts.

The likely outcome here is a pretty high score game. The Atlanta offensive was one of the best in the league last season and it still has the same big bats waiting to really break out.

Getting plus money (+102) on a five-inning total of 5.5 is my game for the day.

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Sascha Paruk

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Lead Oddsmaker & Editor

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Sascha was a hockey player in his youth, a moody lawyer in his mid-twenties and has been commissioning editor, author and lead oddsmaker for SBD for over five years. It covers everything you could possibly bet on but specializes in soccer, baseball, hockey, and basketball.

NFL
NBA
MLB
NHL
NCAAF
NCAAB
politics
tennis
MMA
Sports betting
Gambling

Sascha was a hockey player in his youth, a moody lawyer in his mid-twenties and has been commissioning editor, author and lead oddsmaker for SBD for over five years. It covers everything you could possibly bet on but specializes in soccer, baseball, hockey, and basketball.

Source * www.sportsbettingdime.com – * Source link

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Top 3 MLB Betting Picks for Sunday, June 20 (2021)

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top 3 mlb betting picks for sunday, june 20 (2021)

Welcome back for another Sunday. MLB’s crackdown on pitchers using foreign substances is set to officially begin tomorrow, but we’ve already seen a dramatic drop in spin rates and pitchers complaining about their inability to properly grip the ball. Red Sox starter Garrett Richards, for example, gave up his curveball completely on his last start. He stated that he couldn’t use sunscreen to improve his grip as the reason he didn’t even try to throw a litter that he usually threw more than 15% of the time. How this crackdown will affect the sports betting industry is still unclear, but I’ll keep an eye on pitchers with dramatic drops in their spin rates and most likely avoid unders for a few weeks.

Here are my top betting games for Sunday June 20th. Do you have any questions or want to talk about baseball or betting? Feel free to contact us on Twitter @mikeMaher.

Check out the best player prop bets for today’s slate with our MLB prop bets cheat sheet >>

Oakland Athletics ML (+120)

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Sean Manaea versus Jordan Montgomery. The A’s and Yankees rank 13th and 14th on the batting average against left-handers this season, and they’re four and five in left-handed homers of the year. The A’s beat .247 with 33 homers while the Yankees beat .245 with 31 homers. At least in terms of surface-level stats, these two teams are pretty evenly balanced against southpaws. Then it depends on the matchup. Montgomery has been perfect for the Yankees this season, with a 4.20 ERA and some underlying numbers that are a bit better. However, in his last 11 innings, he has allowed seven deserved runs. In the A’s, Sean Manaea was excellent in his last starts. Since May 18, Manaea has allowed one or less deserved runs in five starts in a row. He also never allowed a run in 12 innings at Yankee Stadium. At +120, Oakland is an easy call today.

Minnesota Twins ML (-118)

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A number of books have this at -120, but you can get it at -118 on FanDuel and DraftKings. The Twins have not been good this season, and neither have the Rangers. The twins should be better than they were as we expected the Rangers in 2021. The twins will go to the series sweep on Sunday, sending Kenta Maeda up the hill to make his second start since returning from the injured list. Maeda hasn’t been very good this season, but it sounds like he sustained a few injuries before finally landing on the IL. Now that he’s back and presumably healthy, hopefully Maeda should look more like the savvy right-handed man he has been for the past few seasons. For the Rangers, Dane Dunning has a 4.57 ERA and has not won a game since May 9th. He has also thrown five innings or fewer in five of his last six starts. In this case, roll with Maeda and the twins, who also just brought Byron Buxton back from the injured list.

Phillies Giants OVER 8.0 runs (-120)

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I have debated this over and over again in the Indian-pirate match. I have more faith in these two offenses and was happy to find a lower number which made the decision easier. In this matchup, Zach Eflin of the Phillies will meet Sam Long, who will make his first start for the Giants with long relief after two appearances. Long has allowed five earned runs over his first nine innings this season, including four earned runs over five innings on his last trip to the hill against the Diamondbacks. Eflin hasn’t won a start for the Phillies since May 7, and his ERA has steadily increased from 3.38 to 3.99. And last week the Giants have the second best team wOBA in baseball with 0.403. Philadelphia has a less consistent offense, but they have a lot of firepower in the middle of their lineup, especially with Rhys Hoskins and Andrew McCutchen heating up.

#Phillies Start Zach Eflin seeks his first win since May 7th against the San Francisco Giants today.

Since that win, Eflin is 0-4 in six starts. # Ring the bell

– Mike Maher. (@mikeMaher) June 20, 2021

That’s it for today. Do you have any questions or want to talk about baseball or betting? Feel free to contact us on Twitter @mikeMaher.

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Mike Maher is an editor and writer at FantasyPros and BettingPros. You can find more of Mike in his archive, follow him on Twitter @MikeMaherand visit his Philadelphia Eagles blog, The lightning bolt.

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