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Jaguars vs. Texans Free NFL Picks for Week 1



jaguars vs. texans free nfl picks for week 1

Jaguars vs. Texans Free NFL Picks for Week 1

Trevor Lawrence #16 of the Jacksonville Jaguars looks to throw a pass. Chris Graythen/Getty Images/AFP

The NFL is back and we get things kicked off here with an AFC South matchup as the Houston Texans host the Jacksonville Jaguars. The Jaguars are entering a new era, while the Texans may be in the final years of their current era. Either way, let’s dig a little deeper here to see if we can find some value in the NFL odds for this spot.

Jacksonville Jaguars vs. Houston Texans

Sunday, September 12, 2021 – 01:00 PM EDT at NRG Stadium

Trevor Lawrence Era Begins in Jacksonville

Anyone who has been paying attention to college football the last few years knows exactly who Trevor Lawrence is. This college quarterback has been so coveted since Andrew Luck’s 2012 debut. Fans are excited about the prospect, and rightly so. Since Mark Brunell left Jacksonville in 2003, Jacksonville hasn’t had a franchise quarterback. The expansion Jaguars, which was a perennial playoff team back then, sounds strange.

In the Jaguars first five seasons as a franchise, they made the playoffs four times, won their division twice and even made it to the AFC championship game twice losing to the Patriots (of course) and the Titans. The point is, with a legit franchise QB, the sky’s the limit, even for an expansion team. It remains to be seen if Lawrence will live up to the hype. Lawrence will enter his first game as a road favourite, which I find suspicious. It is dangerous to score points on the road with a rookie quarterback. It doesn’t sound smart, but it is possible. We’ll discuss the current Texans team and why it’s not insane.

According to the SBR odds page, the Jaguars are -3 favorites going into this game. The total is 45 at most of the best online sportsbooks. There are some 44.5 options depending on where you shop. Although I don’t like Lawrence’s spot, I find the current Texans quarterback situation to be very troubling. Let’s look at Houston.

Life Without Deshaun Watson

We are certainly not going to get into Watson’s off-the-field issues so let’s start with the fact that he will not be playing in this game. Instead, the Texans will be starting Tyrod Taylor who plays the quarterback position very differently than Watson. Watson was a top player in the NFL last year with the talent he had. Watson’s departure from the Texans is a good thing. The franchise has been mismanaged over the past few years.

As for this actual game and these numbers, the total seems to have more value to me than the spread. Let’s begin with my theory about not laying points on the road with rookie quarterbacks. Although I don’t have official stats, even the most talented rookie quarterbacks can be inconsistent. Even those who exceed expectations often have a lot talent around them. Lawrence has some weapons at running back, wide receiver, and running back thanks to the Jags.

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I think they can put up points, mainly because this Texans secondary is awful and they did very little to improve that unit. They don’t have much pass rush and may be the worst run defense of the league. However, this defense isn’t as dominant as it was a few decades ago. They were known as Sacksonville at one time, but those days are gone. The over here team is my favorite because neither side has a strong defense, while the offenses must be equally competent. Although Taylor is not the same player as Watson, he is an experienced quarterback who should limit mistakes.

My Pick

In today’s NFL. 44.5 is a really low number and I think that we might be underestimating the Jags offense. They also have D.J Chark, Marvin Jones and James Robinson who are both explosive players. They also have James Robinson, an explosive running back. And they drafted Travis Etienne to give them a solid one-two punch. Etienne may be the best running back in the draft. The Texans offense may not be as good as it was with Watson, but it can still do some things. My NFL pick for this spot is the over 44.5 which is available at BetOnline.

NFL pick: Over 44.5 (-108) at BetOnline (visit our BetOnline Review)

Over 44.5 (-108)

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*The pick reflects the line at the moment the writer made the play, the odds at the beginning of this article show the live line movement. Since the lines might vary, don’t forget to refer back to our live odds.

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