Sam Darnold #14 of the Carolina Panthers on August 12, 2021 in Westfield, Indiana. Justin Casterline/Getty Images/AFP
With the New York Jets and Carolina Panthers both starting new quarterbacks, the Under looks good for Sunday’s Week 1 NFL picks.
New York Jets vs. Carolina Panthers
Sunday, September 12, 2021 – 1:00 PM ET at Bank of America Stadium
It’s a special day here at the home office: FiveThirtyEight have just released their projections for the 2021 NFL regular season. They’ve got some new bells and whistles, too, including a Quality Index for each matchup. Sadly, Sunday’s game between the New York Jets and Carolina Panthers earns just 12 out of 100 in that department. But hey, at least it’s not the Houston Texans hosting the Jacksonville Jaguars (0/100).
More importantly, Nate Silver’s crew have the Panthers beating New York by 4.5 points. We naturally lean towards the Jets when it comes to our NFL picks. They are 5.5-point road dog dogs. We pride ourselves on science and journalism so we will need to look at more sources. Over at The USA Today, Jeff Sagarin projects Carolina to win by 6.87 points; the other (paid) projections I’m looking at but not quoting in this space are similarly torn between the two sides of that 5.5-point divide. Harrumph.
New And Improved(?)
This is not an issue. We wouldn’t have recommended a serious spread bet on either side anyway, given how close the projections are to the actual NFL lines, but the Under should have some legs in this Week 1 matchup. The Under was once a strong option for season openers. Between 2005 and 2015 it was 95-79-2 with a 54.5 percent success rate. Since then, the Over has been 41-38, with quarterbacks dominating the spotlight and scoring up all over the board.
Quarterbacks are why we’re grinding the Under for a small sum this week. Zach Wilson, a rookie who the Jets took from BYU as the second pick of the 2021 NFL Draft, makes his debut. Robert Saleh, a former defensive coordinator with the San Francisco 49ers, is their new head coach. They are both highly rated. We also heard and sometimes echoed the same praises for the other draft picks and coaches the Jets have had over the years.
Zach Wilson #2, of the New York Jets, throws a pass at the Green Bay Packers at Lambeau Field in August 2021. Patrick McDermott/Getty Images/AFP
That includes Carolina’s new starter. Sam Darnold went third overall to the Jets in 2018, after a short but successful career with the USC Trojans, and his time as a pro has been eminently forgettable. Darnold finished among the top five qualifying quarterbacks in passing DYAR in each of his three seasons playing in the Big Apple. All the best for your future endeavours.
Darnold is fortunate to have a promising coach in Matt Rhule, a second-year head coach who rebuilt college programs at Baylor and Temple before he was hired. The Under went 9-7 in Rhule’s first season on the job, thanks to improvements on defense that should continue into 2021. There’s a 45-point total on the NFL odds board at Heritage Sports, with the early consensus reports showing 100-percent support for the Under. We don’t have to disagree.
NFL Pick: Under 45 (-108) at Heritage Sports (visit our Heritage Sports Review)
*The pick reflects the line at the moment the writer made the play, the odds at the beginning of this article show the live line movement. Since the lines might vary, don’t forget to refer back to our live odds.
Source * www.sportsbookreview.com – * Source link