Connect with us


NFL Week 1 Last Chance Value Picks



nfl week 1 last chance value picks

NFL Week 1 Last Chance Value Picks

Dwayne Haskins #3 of the Pittsburgh Steelers rolls out of the pocket during the first half of an NFL preseason game. Chris Keane/Getty Images/AFP

Each week throughout the NFL season we take a look at the line shifts that can give sharp bettors big advantages and even bigger value. Below we compare the opening lines to where they are now, just a few days before kickoff, and see if we can take advantage of the oddsmakers’ generosity and cash our NFL picks!

Pittsburgh Steelers vs. Buffalo Bills 

Sunday, September 12, 2021 – 01:00 PM EDT at Highmark Stadium

You don’t have to convince me to take the Bills as they are one of my favorite picks on the NFL slate this week. But what makes it even better is that we see a pivotal move off the second most important number in football betting, seven, which has now slid half a point to 6 ½ as of this Friday morning writing.

In the interest of full disclosure, I am convinced this will be Ben Roethlisberger’s final campaign and I think we saw the beginning of Pittsburgh’s demise last year when they lost four of their last five regular-season games before getting tossed in the first round of the playoffs by their divisional rivals from Cleveland.

The Bills, on the other hand, are a team on the rise, and how this Pittsburgh offensive line is supposed to protect their long-in-the-tooth quarterback is beyond me.

I say the Bills get Big Ben’s uniform plenty dirty before this one is through and a double-digit win by Buffalo is quite likely. Nevertheless, we will take every edge we can get and lay the 6 ½ at Heritage.

NFL Pick: Bills -6 ½ (-108) at Heritage Sports (visit our Heritage Sports Review)

Bills -6 ½ (-108)

Visit Site

Philadelphia Eagles vs. Atlanta Falcons

Sunday, September 12, 2021 – 01:00 PM EDT at Mercedes-Benz Stadium

The line moves don’t have to be big; they just have to be important to matter. And in this case, we see the line ticking up on the favorite, moving from Atlanta -3 to -3 ½ which gives us decent value on the other side, the Philadelphia Eagles. I don’t know why the Falcons should be laying the lumber to any team after their dreadful 4-12 season from a year ago.

The Eagles weren’t great either, finishing the 2020 campaign with a 4-11-1 record. I guess, all things considered, it’s viewed as a jump ball between two weak sisters, and the home team is saddled with the customary three-point handicap.

If this meeting was held at a neutral site, we’d likely see the NFL odds revealing a pick’em so there you have it.

The Falcons are a poor team and their offense has been decimated by the departures from Julio Jones, a six-time Pro Bowl center and Alex Mack. Of course, the Falcons drafted Kyle Pitts who is a physical freak but I’m not expecting game-changing events from the talented tight end in his first professional game.

This means that the Eagles have a good chance of winning, or at least covering it. Remember, Matty Ice is 36 and no longer has his best friend Julio to play catch with so grab the 3 ½ and cash a ticket with Philly.

NFL Pick: Eagles +3 ½ (-110) at BetOnline (visit our BetOnline Review)

Eagles +3 ½ (-110)

Visit Site

San Francisco 49ers vs. Detroit Lions 

Sunday, September 12, 2021 – 01:00 PM EDT at Ford Field

I don’t think laying the lumber on the road is a key to long-term success in sports betting but that doesn’t mean it’s always wrong. Case in point, this Sunday when the 49ers travel to the site of the league’s most moribund franchise, Ford Field, home of the Detroit Lions.

Trey Lance #5 (San Francisco 49ers) stands up at the line-of-scrimmage. Ezra Shaw/Getty Images/AFP

San Francisco is healthy on defense – finally – and although that will likely change, the fact is we get this ass-kicking unit intact, for at least one game together. Their opponent will be Jared Goff, the Detroit center, who will soon learn the difference between an excellent and poor offensive line.

This alone is enough to make a bet on 49ers. But, consider a healthy Jimmy Garoppolo, some fancy weapons surrounding him, like Deebo Samuel and Brandon Aiyuk and a sneaky good Raheem Moret out of the backfield. Plus, we are now getting the 49ers at -7 ½ down from -9 at the opener. Lay it and like it with the Niners.

NFL Pick: 49ers -7 ½ (-115) at Intertops (visit our Intertops Review)

49ers -7 ½(-115)

Visit Site

*The pick reflects the line at the moment the writer made the play, the odds at the beginning of this article show the live line movement. Since the lines might vary, don’t forget to refer back to our live odds.

Source * – * Source link