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Oddsmakers, bettors debate how Next Gen car impacts 2022

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oddsmakers, bettors debate how next gen car impacts 2022

2021 Nextgen Betting

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According to the opening futures odds on the betting market, Kyle Larson is the favourite to be the NASCAR Cup Series champion again in 2022. He’s followed by Hendrick Motorsports teammate Chase Elliott, then drivers from Joe Gibbs Racing, with Team Penske after that. Bookmakers predict that next season will be very similar to the 2021 campaign.

Despite the Next Gen car being on the horizon, this is still the case.

RELATED : Next Gen timeline| NASCAR amends Next Gen testing schedule

While the Next Gen car could even the playing field, emphasizing driver skill over equipment, SuperBook USA’s Ed Salmons — a top NASCAR oddsmaker — will believe it when he sees it.

“I’ll go with the assumptions I’ve seen the last couple years, and when I see something different on the track, I’ll go with that,”Salmons, “Stuff that tells me otherwise, I’ll build that into the odds, but until I know something factual, I’ll just assume all the stuff I know is what I know from the other car.”

Some NASCAR punters are keen to see the Next Gen car as a potential opportunity for a change in handicapping.

“Short answer is it’s going to change everything,”Blake Phillips, a bettor. “… You have to throw out a lot of the previous results to an extent. … My approach next season is going to be very different in that I’m going to be looking at recent results much, much more heavily than historic results, and I’m going to be seeing how closely they align with previous results and how much they differ.”

Zack White, a pro-bettor, sees the opportunity to move ahead of the oddsmakers.

“It’s definitely going to be a challenge. Luckily it will be a challenge for the bookmakers, too,”White sent a text message. “I haven’t finalized a plan yet on how I will adjust handicapping, but obviously a lot of old data will have to be thrown out. We will see what kind of information I can get my eyes on before those first couple races and go from there.”

Here are early odds from two sportsbooks — SuperBook USA and NASCAR sponsor Barstool — to win the 2022 Cup title for drivers priced at 100-1 odds or less at the Las Vegas shop.

DriverSuperBookBarstool
Kyle Larson+350+250
Chase Elliott+500+500
Denny Hamlin+800+550
Kyle Busch+800+800
Ryan Blaney+1000+1000
William Byron+1000+1000
Martin Truex Jr+1000+550
Joey Logano+1400+1400
Kevin Harvick+1400+1400
Alex Bowman+2000+2000
Christopher Bell+2000+2500
Kurt Busch+3000+3000
Brad Keselowski+3000+1800
Tyler Reddick+6000+5000
Ross Chastain+10000+12500
Daniel Suarez+10000+12500
Austin Cindric+10000+6600

SHUFFLING OF FIELD

The 2021 season was a time when we talked about the “Big Three” garages — Hendrick, Gibbs and Penske — but should the Next Gen car accomplish NASCAR’s goal of elevating the importance of driver skill, we may see teams with lighter budgets win more races.

“Guys like Tyler Reddick come to mind,”Phillips stated. “I think that’s the guy who might suddenly be a lot more competitive than he is now when we go to the new package. But at the same time, this is a guy who has to drive that car as hard as it will go every single week, and I want to see if he can keep it clean.”

The reverse could also hold true: Drivers that can be grateful to their equipment for their success in the past may return to the pack. (Denny Hamlin is looking over you, Alex Bowman).

“I do expect we’re going to see some of these lower-funded teams and drivers who have a ton of talent but don’t have a ton of money being quite a bit more competitive, and I think we’re going to see some of the lower performers on the heavily funded teams dropping a little bit further down in the pack,”Phillips stated.

Salmons is skeptical.

“The one thing I always hear whenever they wheel out a new car is the guys that never win, they’re going to have a chance now, it’s going to even the field,”According to the bookmaker. “I believe the teams that have the most money spend the most and find stuff out first and get the advantages first. That’s just how it is. I could be dead wrong. But until I see it on the track, I’m not going to believe it.”

Marcus DiNitto, senior news editor at Gaming Today, has been covering sports business for more than 20 years and sports betting for about 10. NASCAR is among the many sports he bets — and typically loses — on. Follow him on TwitterDon’t bet on his picks.