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Swinger’s NFL Week 1 Picks



swinger's nfl week 1 picks

Swinger's NFL Week 1 Picks

Kendrick Green #53 of the Pittsburgh Steelers on August 21, 2021 in Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania. Joe Sargent/Getty Images/AFP

Swinger destroyed the books last season and he’s back to do it all over again with his NFL picks found exclusively right here, at SBR! Without further ado, let’s see what the man has in store for us in the opening week of the season. The National Football League is finally back…and so are Swinger’s Picks!

  • 2020 Season NFL Win Percentage: 63.3%
  • Swinger’s 2020 NFL Record: 38-22-2 ATS (+38.95 units using a 1-to-5-unit system)

Guys, it feels crazy to say it but the NFL is back! Alright, so if you followed me last year, we absolutely crushed it, and I say “we” because I truly feel like we are all in this together. I’m not getting all sappy on you, and no I haven’t been drinking (little later), but when people put their faith in my decisions, as well as their money, I feel a responsibility to execute.

Needless to say, I am thrilled to have this platform and to work with the tremendous peeps here at SBR. Nothing but good vibes from them and the people who follow me on Twitter @SwingerAtSBR. But then again, when you hit over 63 percent and bring back nearly 40x their initial investment from Week 1 through the Super Bowl, well, let’s just say it’s not my dashing good looks and charismatic personality that keeps my followers coming back.

Before we get into it, let me say that if you are new, and thinking that this guy is blowing smoke then I welcome you to click my name at the top of this article and find all the Swinger’s Picks from last season. You will then see all my previous columns and find that my record reflects the cumulative total of all those weeks including my Super Bowl winner with the Tampa Bay Bucs.

Guys and girls, every week isn’t a winner and it isn’t going to be easy to match what we did last season. But stick with me and let’s push through this together. Keep faith, my boys, even through the rough times. Your captain will eventually have all the luck in the world.

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The Woodman is back for another season. He started last season with a terrible 2-9 ATS record, but he won nine consecutive games until he took on your old friend Swinger, taking the Chiefs to the Super Bowl. No, The Woodman is not my alter ego but he is a professional capper who has won more than his fair share of NFL handicapping tournaments so give him a read as well.

We’re going easy in Week 1 because, really, who the hell knows what these teams are going to look like after offseason acquisitions, rookie drafts, and coaching changes. We use a 1-to-5 unit system. One is our average bet, five is a Play of the Month type of wager. So what are you waiting for? Buckle up and let’s go!

Pittsburgh Steelers vs. Buffalo Bills

Sunday, September 12, 2021 – 1:00 PM ET at Highmark Stadium

I have to confess; I feel like Chalky von Chalkowitz after perusing the NFL odds because, after a quick scan of the matchups, the vast majority of favorites are lookin’ like Mila Kunis while the underdogs remind me of my drunk uncle Bob, replete with a wig and lipstick.

But when it’s closing time and the bartender says, “You don’t have to go home but you can’t stay here”, sometimes those Mila Kunis types look quite a bit different when the lights go on. Even a sniper wouldn’t take them out and that’s the way I feel whenever I’m leaning too heavily on the chalk. Joe Q. The public is slaughtered because Joe Q. lays the lumber and has no interest in betting the dog.

Well, this week, I am as square as a microwave and am getting down on the Bills. I’m not convinced Buffalo will run away with the AFC East as they did last season and there could be a bit of regression to the mean for Josh Allen but I do believe the Steelers will be one of the biggest disappointments this season. After tearing through their first three-quarters of the schedule, they did a quick fade last season.

Josh Allen #17 of Buffalo Bills. Timothy T Ludwig/Getty Images/AFP

You may recall the Bills defeated the Steelers last year, 26-15, and held Big Ben to 187 yards passing and intercepted him twice, one of which was a 51-yard pick-six.

Pittsburgh saw four of their five starting offensive linemen leave the reservation in the offseason and if this new crew – consisting of two rookies, fourth-rounder Dan Moore, and third-rounder Kendrick Green – doesn’t stand tough against a bolstered Bills pass rush with first-rounder Greg Rousseau and second-rounder Boogie Basham then Roethlisberger’s uniform is going to be dirtier than Andrew Dice Clay at the AVN Awards.

How will the Pittsburgh secondary stop the Buffalo aerial attack, exactly? I don’t see it and I just can’t wrap my mind around the Steelers keeping this one close. However, before we get too carried away, all we’ve seen so far is the preseason and that, my friends, is often a mirage. Anyway, we’re going to flip a few units on the Bills and hope Josh Allen looks as good as Mila Kunis when this one is done.

NFL Pick: Bills -6.5 (-108) at Heritage Sports for 2 units (visit our Heritage Sports Review)

Bills -6.5(-108)

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Jimmy Garoppolo #10 of the San Francisco 49ers. Ezra Shaw/Getty Images/AFP

San Francisco 49ers vs. Detroit Lions

Sunday, September 12, 2021 – 1:00 PM EDT at Ford Field

Here we go again. It is almost embarrassing to be so excited about another square play. Does Jared Goff in place of Matthew Stafford give you hope that the Lions will shed the moniker of the league’s worst franchise? Not for me and as a matter of fact, I think the Cats are going to regress…if that’s at all possible. They did get Penei Sewell, which should have been a stud tackle. What else? D’Andre Swift, their primary offensive weapon may not be available, but do you think his groin injury will suddenly heal?

The Niners’ defense is now fully healthy which is bad news for Goff and I don’t see how the Lions are keeping pace with Sweet Jimmy G and his arsenal of weapons. Maybe I’m just a wide-eyed square but even the public wins from time to time (and let’s hope they do this week) so we’re backing the road chalk in this one. I just hope this doesn’t become a pattern.

NFL Pick: 49ers -7.5 (-105) at Bovada for 2 units (visit our Bovada Review)

49ers -7.5(-105)

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D’Andre Swift #32 of the Detroit Lions. Sam Greenwood/Getty Images/AFP

The Woodman’s Corner

Woodman’s 2020 NFL Record (11-10, +0.10 units)

The Woodman came on like a house on fire last season after struggling to a dismal 2-9 ATS. But suddenly he woke up and ripped off nine consecutive winning weeks! He chose to ignore the dog in the most important game of the year and take the Chiefs in Super Bowl.

It’s 2021 and the season looks brand new and shiny. The Woodman is urging his legions to take over the Houston Texans.

Woodman’s Pick: Texans +3 (-103) at BetOnline (visit our BetOnline Review)

Texans +3(-103)

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*The pick reflects the line at the moment the writer made the play, the odds at the beginning of this article show the live line movement. Since the lines might vary, don’t forget to refer back to our live odds.

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