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The Big NHL Model Projection Edge That Sharps Are Betting (Thursday, May 20)



the big nhl model projection edge that sharps are betting

Panthers vs. Lightning Odds, Predictions: The Big Projection Edge of the NHL Model Sharps Bet On (Thursday, May 20)Recognition:

Eliot J. Schechter / NHLI via Getty Images. Pictured: Ryan Lomberg of the Florida Panthers implicates David Savard of the Tampa Bay Lightning.

May 20, 2021 at 10:41 a.m. EDT

Panthers vs. Lightning Odds

Panther’s chances+122
Lightning chances-141
Over under5.5 (-120 / -103)
timeThursday, 6:30 p.m. ET
TVUnited States

Yes, you read that heading correctly.

We don’t usually cover NHL PRO reports that often, but as many sports fans know, the Stanley Cup Playoffs are arguably the most exciting postseason in any sport.

And where the fans are excited, there is often a correlation to big bets.

Especially when it comes to the first round between the Florida Panthers and Tampa Bay Lightning, it was all Tampa Bay for the first two games. The Lightning took the first two games on the road and returned home to take a 3-0 lead against the Panthers.

What do the hottest NHL bettors think of Thursday’s third game? Is the value of having Tampa at home? Or is this the time to jump to Florida for a plus money price?

Panthers vs. Lightning Betting Prediction

Sharp action

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Action Network, NHL Sign Content Partnership Deal



action network, nhl sign content partnership deal

Action Network, NHL Sign Article Feature Image Content Partnership Agreement6/16/2021, 9:26 AM EDT

The Action Network has signed a contract with the National Hockey League to provide content for the league’s platforms.

The partnership includes:

  • Expert analysis in written content on every NHL playoff game
  • Weekly betting video show hosted by Action NHL experts
  • Action Network experts appear on NHL podcasts
  • Two product placements on

“The NHL has always been at the forefront of finding new and creative ways to serve fans,” said Chad Millman, action chief content officer. “We are very excited to continue this tradition by bringing the best betting content to their platforms.”

The Action Network will rely on its betting expertise and the trust of its existing audience to provide entertaining and informative content for bettors and non-bettors alike.

The Action Network already has several professional sports leagues among its partners, including the PGA TOUR, NBA and MLB.

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Updated Stanley Cup Odds After Second Round of 2021 NHL Playoffs



updated stanley cup odds after second round of 2021 nhl

Updated Stanley Cup Odds for 2021 NHL Playoffs - Golden Knights, Lightning, Canadiens

Vegas Golden Knights right winger Mark Stone (61) celebrates after the Vegas Golden Knights take the Colorado Avalanche in game 3 of an NHL Hockey Stanley Cup playoff series in the second round on Friday, June 4, 2021 in Las Vegas have defeated. (AP Photo / John Locher)

  • The updated Stanley Cup odds for 2021 were released ahead of the NHL playoffs semi-finals
  • The Golden Knights are the favorites while the Habs are the biggest longshots
  • Check out the updated Stanley Cup odds for the last four teams along with the betting analysis below

There are only four NHL teams left looking for the ultimate ice hockey prize. Updated Stanley Cup odds were released for the final four teams ahead of the 2021 NHL Playoffs Semi-Finals. Round 3 starts on Sunday June 13th.

The Vegas Golden Knights are preferred to win their very first Stanley Cup, while the Montreal Canadiens are the biggest longshots. The Tampa Bay Lightning are available at an additional cost to repeat as champions.

We set the updated Stanley Cup odds for the last four teams and provide betting tips.

Stanley Cup odds 2021

teamOdds at DraftKings
Vegas Golden Knights+110
Tampa Bay Lightning+175
Residents of New York+650
Montreal Canada+850

June 11 odds

Knight in shining armor

The Golden Knights are preferred to win Lord Stanley after beating the previous favorite, the Colorado Avalanche, in Round 2. Vegas defeated Colorado in just six games after taking seven games to get past Minnesota in Round 1. The Golden Knights have now made it to the conference finals in three of the first four seasons in the league.

The insane BetMGM promo allows bettors to wager $ 20 on any event and win $ 100 even if their stake loses

The Golden Knights have a contender for the Vezina Trophy in Marc-Andre Fleury and one of the best defensive strikers in Mark Stone. Their biggest problem last year was the lack of goals against a defensively strong Dallas team. The Knights are more balanced this time with 10 different players who have multiple goals.


– Vegas Golden Knights (@GoldenKnights) June 11, 2021

This could be the year the Knights make the final move, but you need to consider their path to championship. You’ll need to solve both Carey Price and (likely) Andrei Vasilevskiy before they can catch Lord Stanley. We saw this offense get frustrated in the last postseason in Round 2 against Thatcher Demko before it was thwarted by Anton Khudobin in the Conference Final.

Will the lightning repeat itself?

The Lightning are right behind the Knights in updated cup odds after winning their first two playoff series in a convincing manner. The Bolts defeated the Panthers in six games in the opening round before taking just five games to beat the Hurricanes in Round 2. The Lightning defeated the Islanders in the semi-finals last year and will have to repeat that process this year.

Good morning from many of the semi-finalists. ️

– Tampa Bay Lightning (@TBLightning) June 9, 2021

This Lightning team is very similar to the one that won the Stanley Cup in 2020. Brayden Point and Nikita Kucherov are attacking leaders again, while Andrei Vasilevskiy was a rock in goal. Not to mention the blueliner Victor Hedman has just been nominated for the Norris Trophy for the fifth time in a row.

The Lightning are well positioned to become the first back-to-back cup champions since the Penguins accomplished the feat in 2016 and 2017. The price of +175 is a gift considering the Bolts are in the top five on both offense and defense. You also have to keep in mind that their power play is working at 41.7% efficiency and was almost unstoppable this postseason.

Habs are fascinating longshots

The Montreal Canadiens are the biggest longshots in the updated cup odds after having delivered surprises in their first two playoff rounds. The Habs defeated the Maple Leafs in seven games in round 1 before sweeping the Jets in round two. The main reason to consider a longshot bet on Montreal is goalkeeper Carey Price, who leads the postseason with a savings percentage of 0.935.

#GoHabsGo Carey Price: Last 7 games

Record: 7-0
ATM: 1.64
Save%: 0.943
Shutdowns: 1

– Sportsnet statistics (@SNstats) June 8, 2021

The Habs have won seven games in a row and haven’t lagged behind at no point since Game 4 of the first round against Toronto. They are the most relaxed club that moves into the third round and only lead all remaining teams 2.18 allowed goals per game. Montreal doesn’t have a Kucherov-type superstar but has a solid group of goalscorers including Tyler Toffoli and Nick Suzuki.

The Canadiens have won five of six games of all time against Vegas, despite the fact that the two teams haven’t played since January 2020. The Canadiens aren’t an offensive juggernaut, but they don’t have to play at this elite level with Price playing. Tampa Bay may be the best cup bet in Round 3, but the Habs are the most valued game.

This article contains links to external sports betting services. SBD can generate advertising income from these links, but the editors have selected each individual link based on relevance to the article, without affecting the reach.

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Brady Trettenero

Sports journalist

Sports journalist

Brady is a passionate hockey fanatic and sports journalist with over five years of digital media experience and a degree in broadcast journalism. His work has been widely recognized by the likes of ESPN, CBS Sports, Yahoo! Sports and fox sports.


Brady is a passionate hockey fanatic and sports journalist with over five years of digital media experience and a degree in broadcast journalism. His work has been widely recognized by the likes of ESPN, CBS Sports, Yahoo! Sports and fox sports.

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Canadiens vs. Jets NHL Playoffs Odds, Series Predictions & Game 1 Preview (Wednesday, June 2)



canadiens vs. jets nhl playoffs odds, series predictions & game

Canadiens vs. Jets Series odds

Canadians odds+107
Jets odds-130
over / Under5.5 Games (-162 / +125)
timeWednesday, 7:30 p.m. ET
Odds from Tuesday afternoon and via DraftKings.

“It’s like the Super Bowl from ______!”

There are lots of super bowls. It is the point of contact for everything.

Westminster Kennel Club dog show? The Super Bowl of Dog Shows!

Ceremony for Thanksgiving? Your mom’s super bowl of meals!

ABC’s Bachelor in Paradise? It’s the super bowl of antibiotics!

We thought we had the NHL’s most famous first-round rivalry when the Montreal Canadiens stunned the Toronto Maple Leafs in seven games. While there are few arguments for other couples, this dramatic matchup lived up to the hype.

Now the Habs are moving into the next round to compete against Winnipeg in the NHL Stanley Cup Playoffs for the first time. It doesn’t have the same cache, but what if I told you that this series contains two opposing pages that have radically different belief systems – and that this series can give one page as many bragging rights as anything that happened in between? the long-time generation fans of the Canadiens and Maple Leafs? Is that something you might be interested in?

Auston Matthews is gone. Connor McDavid’s postseason was nothing more than a cameo for the second year in a row. However, ice hockey’s greatest rivalry remains. It’s “Analytics Versus Eye Test”.

I present to you: The Super Bowl of Hockey Handicapping.

Montreal Canadiens

In the red corner of this hockey betting title fight: The Canadiens of Montreal. Two seasons ago, the Habs had their heads scratched by handicappers based on hockey analysis.

In the 2019-20 season, before the pandemic, the Canadiens were runner-up in the NHL at 5v5 expected goal percentage and played well enough to score 54% of theoretical goals with the same strength. You got sandwiched between Tampa Bay and Vegas at the top of the league on a key metric for evaluating a team’s play.

However, the Habs entered the NHL bubble in Toronto at the end of the teams that qualified for the playoffs, and eventually pulled out the vaunted Pittsburgh Penguins in the first round. Those of us who praise analytics found the underdog Habs very valuable, and indeed Montreal sent Sidney Crosby and his company home early.

In the next round, the Habs dominated the game against the Flyers with 60.33% of the equally strong expected goal share. Given where the Flyers are in the chart this year, it shouldn’t come as a surprise. What was really breathtaking was the string of bad bounces the Habs got on either end of the ice when the Flyers beat them in six games – one of the most unfortunate results of all time in a playoff series.

Francois Lacasse / NHLI via Getty Images.

So hopes were high that Montreal would enter this season. Just keep the same 5v5 game and improve the conversion of high danger scoring odds at a higher rate – and maybe mix more efficiency in power play – and we expected Montreal to get the new coined northern division. If Carey Price found the same shape he was in the bubble, Canadien’s futures supporters would really have something.

… But none of that happened. It cost Claude Julien his job along the way, and the high-level metrics the Habs had carried stayed with him.

With Julien at the helm, the Canadiens averaged 9.1 high-danger chances with uniform strength, while they only allowed their opponents 6.4. You would have this relationship all day, every day.

However, since it didn’t result in 18-game wins, the Habs felt a change was needed. Dominic Ducharme took over, and that relationship tightened and turned bad. For the rest of the season, the Habs had an average of 8.0 high-risk chances on the offensive, but gave up 8.54 per game defensively.

In fairness, these metrics can be explained at least in part by two key factors as the season ended: (1) injuries that piled up; (2) A doubly compressed schedule that left Montreal no room for a breather.

In previewing the first round in this section, I used the following graphic to show how the Habs’ perception was skewed due to their late season struggles:

Before April 6thAfter April 6th
High danger chances for 5v5319141
High danger chances against 5v5242190
High Danger Conversion Rate 5v514.7%10.6%
High Danger Targets 5v547fifteen
Expected goals for 5v51.9191,615
Expected goals against 5v51,4591.793
Expected goals share 5v556.8%47.3%
Model evaluation “Let’s do the hockey”66.8%35.4%

You can see how things went for the final month of the season, but the Habs have returned their full lineups for the playoffs and the Maple Leafs series. What happened next was the case of a team that was better than people thought, got a little lucky with Toronto injuries, and beat them in seven games as a massive +275 underdogs – who really should have been a little under +200.

For the second straight Stanley Cup playoffs, the Habs cashed in as big underdogs for those of us who believe the numbers against a team with more high-profile talent. For the second playoffs in a row, however, they will now meet a team in the next round whose analysis-based handicappers scratch their heads for a completely different reason.

Expected Goals (aka xG) is a predictive statistic that shows whether results are based on sustainable factors such as the constant creation of scoring opportunities, or whether it is due to aspects such as luck in shooting or excellent goalkeeping.

In simple terms, an expected goal rate (xGF%) of over 50% is considered good, as this means that a team has the majority of the scoring opportunities. Anything below 50% is usually a sign that a team is having trouble controlling the game.

xG numbers and advanced statistics cited from Evolving Hockey, MoneyPuck, and Natural Stat Trick.

Winnipeg Jets

In the blue corner, the Winnipeg Jets don’t make it easy for themselves. While the Canadiens create more quality opportunities than they give up – a generally good idea if you are planning on winning a hockey game – the Jets do the opposite.

Sometimes it feels like they’re leading teams to their own network like dog handlers leading their dogs in Madison Square Garden. Winnipeg’s 46.48% expected 5v5 goal percentage is obviously not ideal, but its +101 net cumulative difference in even high-danger odds given up vs. created was alarming during the shortened season.

This is how the jet season went in chart form:

High Danger Opportunities 5v5420521
High Danger Targets 5v56859
Expected goals 5v595.16109.55

The good news for the Jets is that they have the bigger number on that middle row: actual goals. A conversion rate of 16.2% is well above the NHL average (14%). The opponents, on the other hand, only turn over 11.3%, mainly thanks to the outstanding goalkeeper from Connor Hellebuyck. Last year’s Vezina Trophy winner had a slip towards the end of his season but was still one of the championship leaders – good enough for 0.25 above average goals per 60 minutes.

Basically, the jets rely on high-end talent who, thanks to a high conversion rate, have just enough chances to carry the number of points. In the meantime, they play an easy game knowing that their goalkeeper is more likely than most of the others to save the day behind them. It’s a dangerous game – but one that you are ready to live and die with.

The Jets put that to the test against McDavid and the Oilers. While the Edmonton sweep makes you believe they turned a corner with the start of the playoffs, a quick look at the series metrics suggests that it isn’t.

High Danger Opportunities 5v53960
High Danger Targets 5v56th5
Expected goals 5v51.982.82
GSAA for starters4.64-1.19

Again, it’s easy to see the jets with fewer high-danger chances and xG, but more actual goals and better goalkeeper. It’s outrageous to give up 15 high-danger chances per game with equal strength, but the Jets did it, winning three out of four games in overtime after winning Game 1 (which drew 1-1 in the third period) .

Darcy Finley / NHLI via Getty Images.

NHL Playoff Series betting analysis & tip

The Habs know the Jets want to unwrap it that way. Winnipeg went through this season against Montreal 6-3, although the Canadiens had a significant lead of 53.1% to 46.9% in the expected percentage of goals with even strength.

Whether it’s the head-to-head record this season – or the story that the Canadiens are some brave underdogs who can’t be a good hockey team – the public already believes the Jets are a major favorite in this one Should be series only to be stunned that they are not.

The Jets opened at -130 to win the series while the Habs are +110. Given the perception of the two teams, that makes sense. Pricing the series in this way will draw the attention of bettors on Winnipeg who don’t believe in Montreal’s depth and defensive responsibility: two categories that aren’t particularly noticeable for recreational bettors.

The series’ pricing also takes into account the rested jets waiting at home for the Habs who will go out of their way to beat Toronto and now have a quick turnaround ahead of Round 2 April and early May. It may also have resulted in Vegas being crushed in Game 1 against Colorado – as they faced the same hurdle after winning seven games.

These two teams don’t have much bad blood, but it will be fascinating to see this series from the perspective of both the “Statt-Head” and the “Hardcore Hockey Dude”. The latter has the advantage, both from a home ice point of view, and significantly more calm. However, it depends on the price.

As always: the person and the rating. I expect the Habs to struggle in Game 1 and I wouldn’t want to support them in the opening game, I would go the long way with a serial bet. In any probability exercise – including sports betting – you want the largest sample size possible if you think you are supporting the better team. Carey Price appears to be Montreal’s best option for stealing Game 1.

The numbers show the Habs are better than the Jets, so I’m going to use some of my budget on this series and bet on Montreal to win the series. I think the price will only improve as we get closer to the first puck drop so I’ll wait and see if we do better than the current +110 price.

I’ll skip game 1 betting and if the Habs drop the opener I’ll come back to it for the series and Game 2 because I believe the Habs can take four of the last six games if necessary. If they can win three straight from Toronto, they can certainly do it against a team that was rated significantly lower in Winnipeg – though that may surprise those who avoid the metrics.

Tip: Canadiens Series (+110 or better)

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