Welcome back for another Sunday, friends. We have been on a good run of late, winning five of our last six bets and seven of our last nine. And at least one of those two losses could have easily been another win if not for a late bullpen implosion. Let’s take a look at today’s Sunday slate and see if we can stay hot.
Here are my top betting plays for Sunday, August 29. Have questions or want to talk baseball or betting? Feel free to reach out on Twitter @mikeMaher.
View the best player prop bets for today’s slate with our MLB Prop Bet Cheat Sheet >>
Toronto Blue Jays ML (-154)
Sunday’s pitching matchup features Jose Berrios (Blue Jays) against Matthew Boyd (Tigers). Berrios hasn’t exactly been the ace the Blue Jays hoped they were acquiring at the trade deadline as he has a 4.81 ERA through 24 1/3 innings since the trade. But he does have 25 strikeouts over that span and only really struggled in two of his starts. If you remove his starts against the Angels and White Sox in which he allowed 10 earned runs over 7 1/3 innings, he has allowed just three earned runs over 17 innings in his other three starts.
Boyd has been on the injured list for more than two months and is making his return on Sunday. If you are coming back from a lengthy layoff, this Blue Jays lineup is not the one you want to see waiting for you when you get back. If you have followed my picks this season, you know I frequently focus on lackluster pitching options, especially ones who are not expected to pitch deep into the game for one reason or another. Boyd threw 56 pitches in his final rehab start, so he is unlikely to go more than four or five innings on Sunday even if he pitches well. That means innings from the middle of the Tigers bullpen, and that means runs for the Blue Jays.
Reds ML (-167)
The Marlins are not contenders and are letting lefthander Jesus Luzardo figure things out at the Major League level after acquiring him from the Athletics in the Starling Marte trade. The results have been…terrible. Through 22 1/3 innings with the Marlins, Luzardo has allowed 24 earned runs for a whopping 9.67 ERA. His time with the Athletics didn’t go much better in 2021: 6.87 ERA over 38 innings, with some of those innings coming in the bullpen. Simply put, he has been a mess this season and has shown no signs of turning things around anytime soon.
On the other side, Tyler Mahle has been solid this season, though it has come with some inconsistency. He has a 3.69 ERA and 168 strikeouts over 141 1/3 innings to go with a 10-4 record. In his most recent start, he allowed one earned run over 5 2/3 innings while striking out eight against the Brewers. He gets to face a lackluster Miami lineup on Sunday, while Luzardo has to go up against a Cincinnati lineup that boasts a .330 team wOBA, the fourth-highest mark in all of baseball.
Yankees-Athletics OVER 9.0 runs (-115)
The Yankees’ incredible winning streak has finally come to an end, but they have still been one of the best teams (and one of the best offenses) over the last few weeks. They only scored two runs on Saturday, but they had scored at least five runs in nine straight games before running into that performance from Frankie Montas. In five of those games, they had scored seven or more runs. On Sunday, they get to face Paul Blackburn, who has a 4.09 ERA over just 11 innings in 2021. Through 88 2/3 innings in Triple-A, he posted a 4.97 ERA. That means he didn’t exactly earn his promotion. He was promoted out of necessity. Blackburn is likely to have some trouble with this Yankees lineup on Sunday.
The Yankees are sending Jordan Montgomery and his 3.69 ERA over 124 1/3 innings to the mound. He has had a solid season, but it has not been without its bumps along the way. The A’s boast a Top 10 offense against lefties this season and have been even better against them since the trade deadline, when they acquired Starling Marte. Both sides are going to score some runs on Sunday night, and I like the chances of this over hitting.
That’s it for today. Have questions or want to talk baseball or betting? Feel free to reach out on Twitter @mikeMaher.
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Mike Maher is an editor and featured writer at FantasyPros and BettingPros. For more from Mike, check out his archive, follow him on Twitter @MikeMaher, and visit his Philadelphia Eagles blog, The Birds Blitz.
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