Friends, welcome back to another Sunday. This is the last Sunday before we’ll also have a full slate of NFL games fighting for our attention (and funds), so let’s make the most of it. While the Boston Red Sox are still dealing with an extended COVID epidemic, they remain in contention for the American League Wild Card Race. The Yankees finally cooled off but are also still more than four games up on the A’s, Mariners, and Blue Jays and a half of a game up on the Red Sox. The National League has the Dodgers tied with the Giants in West but the Braves are now two games ahead of the Phillies in East and three and a quarter games ahead of the Mets in East. These races and the National League Wild Card could be close.
These are my top bets for Sunday, September 5th. Do you have questions? Send us a tweet @mikeMaher.
View the best player prop bets for today’s slate with our MLB Prop Bet Cheat Sheet >>
New York Mets ML (-149)
The Mets are determined to keep alive and relevant in the race for the National League East crown. They are sending Taijuan Wade to the plate against Josiah Gray of the Nationals. Walker is back on track after a difficult July. He hasn’t won a start since early July but has three quality starts in his last four trips to the mound. With a lackluster Washington lineup on the docket for Sunday, I’m expecting another strong performance from Walker. Gay is one of baseball’s most exciting young prospects, but he allowed six earned run in his last game against the Phillies. He has also walked six batters over the last 10 innings. The Mets have a much better lineup than the Nationals and have something to play for, and I’m expecting Walker to limit the damage against a Washington lineup that is essentially Juan Soto and Josh Bell and a bunch of filler. BetMGM offers the best odds of winning this moneyline at -149
Chicago Cubs MLB (-145)
Although it feels odd to pick the Chicago Cubs (and feel confident doing so) to win a September game, here we are. It will be a tough task facing the Pirates. The Pirates boast a.290 team WOBA, the worst record in baseball. Their team ERA is 5.08. That’s 5.08, and only the Orioles and Diamondback have worse marks. The Cubs were big sellers at the MLB Trade Deadline, but their offense is booming due to names like Frank Schwindel (and Ian Happ), Patrick Wisdom, Rafael Ortega and Patrick Wisdom. They are a fun team that is full of energy. The Pirates currently lead 48-88. But, even more important, they are 48-88 in all aspects. Sunday’s pitching matchup features Wil Crowe starting for the Pirates against Zach Davies for the Cubs. It’s not often that I back Davies for a bet, but I’m taking the veteran right-hander and the Cubs against the Pirates today. DraftKings currently has this bet at -145
Seattle Mariners -1.5 runs (+122)
We have already spoken about the terrible season for the Pirates. Even worse are the Diamondbacks (45-92). Some bettors might be concerned about this game as it features Tyler Gilbert starting for Arizona and he threw an August no-hitter against Padres. At the time, I talked about that performance on FantasyPros’ Leading Off podcast and called it “one of the most unimpressive no-hitters I’ve seen.” And that isn’t meant as a slight against Gilbert; it’s just that he only struck out five batters and was essentially just throwing the ball over the plate and hoping for the best. Since that no-hitter, here are Gilbert’s numbers: 15 IP, 9 ER, 20 H, 5 BB, 10 Ks.
Since then: 15 IP.
— mike Maher. (@mikeMaher) September 5, 2021
Chris Flexen is the Mariners’ first baseman. He has quietly had a great season. Flexen has a 3.52 ERA through 25 innings and 145 2/3. I’m willing to give the 1.5 runs to move this line to +122 over at FanDuel and am expecting an underrated Seattle lineup to put up some runs against Gilbert.
That’s it for today. Do you have any questions? Send us a tweet @mikeMaher.
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