After taking a good, hard look at Tuesday’s pitching matchups using the Action Labs Player props tool, I’ve found one strikeout total on the Major League Baseball card that provides value.
Additionally, I’ve identified a position player prop that also provides value while adding an extra sweat to the schedule.
Our Action Labs tool grades each prop on a scale from 1-10, so I’ll be sure to include the grade below my explanation.
MLB Player Props & Picks
Tarik Skubal — Over 4.5 Strikeouts (-155)
|Tigers vs. Athletics||Athletics (-115)|
|Time||7:10 p.m. ET|
The Oakland offense has struck out at an obscenely low 15% rate over the past 30 days, by far and away the lowest in MLB. However, Skubal is on a tear and proven he can notch punch-outs against the best of teams.
The last time Skubal struck out fewer than four batters was in April. So, since May 1, Skubal is striking out 10.7 batters per nine innings and has notched over 4.5 strikeouts in 14 of his 19 starts since then. Most recently, Skubal struck out 23 batters in his past three starts.
Before his hot streak started, Skubal managed five strikeouts against this same Oakland lineup. Our Action Labs Player Props tool is projecting Skubal with 6.5 strikeouts, while FanGraphs SaberSim projections has him at 4.93.
Either way, there’s plenty of value on the over 4.5 number that DraftKings is offering us.
Action Labs Grade: 10/10
JD Martinez — Over 1.5 Total Bases (+105)
|Red Sox vs. Rays||Rays (-135)|
|Time||7:10 p.m. ET|
Martinez has been streaky this season, but he’s working on three-game hit streak and has a great matchup. In 23 lifetime PA’s against Rays starter Ryan Yarbrough, Martinez is 12 for 21, with six doubles and two home runs.
Yarbrough relies on a cutter-changeup combination about 70% of the time. Meanwhile, Martinez is slugging close to .600 against both pitches (.571 on Cutters, .548 on changeups). He’s been particularly effective against changeups, as he’s posted a +6 run value on the pitch this season.
I try to avoid position player props against the Rays, generally because their bullpen is so good. However, the Rays bullpen has posted a 4.51 reliever xFIP in August that’s good for 24th in baseball.
So, if Martinez doesn’t cash this play against Yarbrough, he’ll have some extra chances against a vulnerable relief staff. I’m happy to play Martinez at plus-money in this spot.
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