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Wednesday MLB Odds and Picks

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Shohei Ohtani runs to the first base

Los Angeles Angels’ Shohei Ohtani runs first as he takes on the Chicago White Sox during the sixth innings of an opening day baseball game on Thursday, April 1, 2021 in Anaheim, Calif. (AP Photo / Mark J. Terrill)

  • The Los Angeles Angels are -143 home favorites against the Kansas City Royals on Wednesday night at Angel Stadium in Anaheim
  • Griffin Canning (4-4, 5.82) will compete for the Angels against Brad Keller (6-4, 5.50)
  • You can find a look at Royals-Angels and a forecast below

The Los Angeles Angels will be looking to overwhelm the three-game streak when they host the Kansas City Royals at Angel Stadium in Anaheim on Wednesday at 9:38 p.m. ET.

Griffin Canning (4-4, 5.82) should start for the Angels against Brad Keller (6-4, 5.50).

The Angels (28-32) made it twice in a row against the Royals, as well as four wins in their last five games and 10 in their last 15 with an 8-1 win on Tuesday night. The Royals (29-29) are on a losing streak of four games following five straight wins and are underdogs in this matchup.

Royals vs. Angels odds

teamMoney lineRunning lineTotal at DraftKings
Kansas City Royals+118+1.5 (-167)Over 9 (+100)
Los Angeles Angels-143-1.5 (+138)Under 9 (-121)

June 9 odds.

World Series 2021 odds tracker

Keller Rolling for Royals

Keller has won three starts in a row and his last four decisions. He’s also 4-0 with 3.52 ERA in his last five outings after the season started with 2-4 with 7.31 ERA in six starts.

That Brad Keller pitch last night, a four-seam with a few cuts, was just absolute shit. pic.twitter.com/G458ZwPO9Y

– Alec Lewis (@alec_lewis) May 8, 2021

In his previous start last Thursday against the Minnesota Twins in Kansas City, Keller gave up two runs with seven hits in five innings. He stroked five and had no walks.

Keller has three quality starts this season in 11 rounds through rotation and those are also the three games he has played at least six innings in.

Keller defeated the Angels in Kansas City on April 14, abandoning a run in 5.2 innings to earn the Canning decision. Keller is 2-2 with a 2.66 ERA against the Royals in five career games, including four starts, but 0-2 with a 4.50 ERA in two starts at Angel Stadium.

Angels career stats vs basement

playerFROMHMRRBIKAVG
Justin Upton31000.333
Shohei Ohtani30001.000
Anthony Rendon00000
Jared Walsh00000
Juan Lagares00000
Jose Iglesia placeholder image5214th0.400
Taylor Ward00000
Max Stassi110101,000
David Fletcher00000

Angels left fielder Justin Upton had never beaten the leadoff in 1,778 career games as of May 23. In 13 games from the number 1 of the sequence, Upton is 16 for 49 (0.327) with five doubles, five homers and 11 RBIs.

I will say it every time. Justin Upton has one of the most beautiful home run swings ever. pic.twitter.com/YZKmHfgcwP

– Jared Carrabis (@Jared_Carrabis) June 5, 2021

The Angels have scored at least five runs in four games in a row, 33 in total.

Canning can’t lately

Canning has been struggling lately, going 1-2 in his last three starts with an 8.74 ERA. Last Thursday, when he lost to the Seattle Mariners, he stayed just 3.1 innings and gave up four runs, six hits and two walks while cutting five.

Griffin Canning’s last litter of the evening was a hanging slider buckled for a three-barrel shot. José Suarez is now in the game. #Angel Lane 4-2. pic.twitter.com/e1ORaD21qg

– Brent Maguire (@ bmags94) June 4, 2021

Canning has only served twice in nine starts at least six innings this season. These also represent his two quality starts.

On April 14, Canning allowed two runs in five innings to lose to the Royals and Keller. He’s 1-1 with a 1.50 ERA against the Royals in two career starts.

Canning has a 3-2 record on Big A this season, but his ERA is 6.52 in five games, four of which have started.

Royals Career Stats vs Canning

playerFROMHMRRBIKAVG
Whit Merrifield6th1001.167
Carlos Santana31001.333
Andrew Benintendi32001.667
Salvador Perez311111,000
Kelvin Gutierrez00000
Jorge Soler510020.200
Michael A. Taylor220001,000
Hunter Dozier52000.400
Nicky Lopez50000.000

Royal’s second baseman Whit Merrifield has a hitting streak of nine games, going 14 for 37 (.378). He has also played the longest current series in the Major Leagues in 367 games.

.@WhitMerrifield puts an exclamation mark on a NINE-Run First Inning for the @Royals. 😱 pic.twitter.com/gNk7i4XcF7

– MLB (@MLB) June 5, 2021

The Royals have only scored nine runs in their last four games, including four or fewer runs in each. They missed at least five runs in each of their last seven games.

An ohtan explosion

Shohei Ohtani hit the longest home run of his major league career in the first inning on Tuesday night and the Angels hit five homers.

Ohtani’s 17th homer of the season was a 470-foot shot deep into the stands in front of Kansas City starter Kris Bubic (1-1). Ohtani then added a double in the third inning, which had an even faster exit speed – 112.6 mph, compared to 111.7 for his homer.

17 for 17 pic.twitter.com/EcNCMfD8QK

– Angels of Los Angeles (@Angels) June 9, 2021

Max Stassi, José Iglesias and Justin Upton also played for Los Angeles before Bubic. Taylor Ward added a two-run shot in the eighth shot.

The two wins have given the Angels 14 wins in 19 games against the Royals since the beginning of the 2018 season.

However, look to the royals to defy this trend in this game. Keller rolls and looks like a good underdog against the struggling Canning.

The pick: Royals (+118)

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John Perrotto

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John Perrotto has been reporting and writing about sports for various media for over 40 years. His work has appeared in USA TODAY, ESPN.com, SI.com, Forbes.com, The Associated Press, Baseball Digest, and more. John is based in Beaver Falls, PA.

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John Perrotto has been reporting and writing about sports for various media for over 40 years. His work has appeared in USA TODAY, ESPN.com, SI.com, Forbes.com, The Associated Press, Baseball Digest, and more. John is based in Beaver Falls, PA.

Source * www.sportsbettingdime.com – * Source link

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Baseball

How to Bet Sunday Night Baseball (June 20)

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how to bet sunday night baseball (june 20)

Cardinals vs. Braves odds

Cardinals odds+108
Good odds-125
Over under7.5 (-104 / -118)
time7:08 p.m. ET
TVESPN
Odds from Sunday and via DraftKings.

Sunday Night Baseball will feature Game 2 of a seven-inning double header between the Cardinals and Braves.

The Braves are already leading 2-0 in this series, with a 4-1 win on Thursday and a 9-1 win on Friday. The two teams were rained out on Saturday and will play a day-night doubles game on Sunday, with Game 1 starting at 2:10 PM ET and the night game starting at 7:08 PM ET.

The Cardinals fell into doldrums in June, with a 5-11 record and a -39 run differential. They currently rank fourth in NL Central, 3.5 games behind the pace, but their expected Pythagorean record is only 31-39.

The Braves are only 7-9 in June, but they have a +6 run gap over that range and an expected season record of 34-33. Despite a bit of bad luck, Atlanta is only 5.5 games behind the division leading Mets in the NL East race.

The Braves (+130) and Cardinals (+110) were each favored to win their respective divisions early in the season, but by then either or both teams will likely miss the playoffs.

So these head-to-head matches are vital for wildcard purposes, even if we still have more than half a season ahead of us.

Who is ahead on Sunday evening?

Cardinals have a fresh but bad bullpen

I mentioned it recently, but it has to be repeated; The most interesting thing about the Cardinals’ 2021 season is their combination of an extremely unfortunate offensive (.294 WOBA, .320 xwOBA) with an equally lucky pitching stick (.309 WOBA, .336 xWOBA).

Those large gaps in expected metrics persist for most of the season, and my guess is that Busch Stadium – what may installed one of these five secret humidors this season – is largely responsible for these differences compared to the expected statistics.

Last week I also talked about how Harrison Bader’s injury skewed the Cardinals’ defensive stance. St. Louis led the entire MLB on Defensive Runs Saved (DRS) last season (+36), but has dropped to ninth place (+20) this year and would be closer to 11th without Bader’s contributions.

The Cardinals’ bullpen (5.03 xFIP, 9.0% K-BB%) is one of the worst in baseball, alongside a starting stick (4.66 xFIP, 9.9% K-BB%), which has a similar level to had to fight. You go too many hitters (league high, 11.4%) but you haven’t necessarily paid for these free baserunners.

Offensively, the Cardinals’ record discipline is closer to the league average, and their .271 BABIP suggests a positive regression in the future regardless of the humidor situation.

The Cardinals’ bullpen is relatively fresh for Sunday’s double headers, as their workhorses (Genesis Cabrera, Giovanny Gallegos, Ryan Helsley and Alex Reyes) have all appeared in over 30 games this season and Andrew Miller has pitched five only once in the past Days.

Kwang Hyun Kim (4.50 xERA, 4.27 xFIP, 4.44 SIERA) has improved his swinging and strikeout rates from last year while maintaining a groundball rate of around 50%.

He’s an average league starting pitcher, and the Braves’ offensive was average against left-handers (101 WRC +).

Braves have elite attacks

Conversely, the Cardinals offensive against left-handers (107 WRC +) did much better than right-handers (84 WRC +), with the option of starting nine right-handers or switching hitters in their regular line-up.

That could pose a problem for Braves starter Drew Smyly, who struggled after a 2020 career year with the Giants this season (5.66 xERA, 4.99 xFIP, 4.68 SIERA). Smyly’s K-BB% is down from 29.7% year over year to 11.8%, his fastball speed has dropped more than a full tick, and his hit rate (44.9%) is at a career high.

Smyly’s 2020 season is the clear outlier in its statistical profile:

Atlanta’s offense (.340 xwOBA) is one of the three expected units, although they will have to replace Marcell Ozuna shortly after his arrest for domestic violence.

Abraham Almonte (.422 wOBA, .374 xwOBA) did an admirable job in the left field, which has been the case since the three-time Gold Glover Ender Inciarte (.253 xwOBA in 2020, .234 xwOBA this season; +1 DRS in this range) is critically important) has had a really hard time doing something and may need to be replaced at some point on their roster.

Atlanta’s Bullpen (4.47 xFIP, 13.9% K-BB%) performed like a bottom 10 unit, but still not as bad as the Cardinals group of relief arms.

They also rank as the bottom 10 defensive team (-2 DRS) and receive remarkable hits from Almonte (-4), Guillermo (-4) and William Contreras (-5).

Surprisingly, the swing from Ozuna (+4) to Almonte was enormous and the Braves had a harder time replacing Ozuna’s glove as his racket.

Despite his reputation for making gruesome moves on the outfield, Ozuna has scored well above average (+14) since moving to the corner full-time in 2017; In 2016 it was a real disaster (-17 DRS) for the Marlins.

The Braves are a flawed team whose starting depth has fallen apart, but their offense (outside of a perfectly healthy Mets or Dodgers team) could be the best in the NL right now. One elite unit is enough to build around, especially if they are willing to add bullpen pieces before the close of trading.

Cardinals Braves Picks

I projected the Cardinals as the 48.4% underdog in this matchup, but the moneyline price looks about right; It would take me +116 or better to bet the Cardinals. The seven-inning format certainly helps, but the longer this game lasts, the better the Braves’ chances of winning.

I put the total of the game at 7.07 runs and forecast a slight value for the under 7.5 at each plus-money prize.

I also set the Cardinals’ F5 odds at 54.5% and forecast their F5 money line to be -106 or better.

Depending on how game 1 of this double header goes and the specific line-up situation for game 2, I can try to increase my risk with one of these bets.

Choose: Cardinals F5 (+100, 0.5u) | Below 7.5 (+100, 0.5u)

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MLB Picks Today – Odds, Betting Lines, Probable Pitchers for Sunday

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St. Louis Cardinals

St. Louis Cardinals’ Nolan Arenado hits a single during the eighth innings of a baseball game against the Milwaukee Brewers in Milwaukee on Thursday, May 13, 2021. (AP Photo / Morry Gash)

  • Check out the best bets in baseball on June 19th when the Cardinals face the Braves in a double-headed second leg
  • Moneyline predictions for the game plus betting trends
  • Please note that baseball double headers are only seven innings this season

Sunday MLB action ends with the St. Louis Cardinals (35-35, 16-20 away) versus the Atlanta Braves (32-35, 19-19 at home) at 7:00 p.m. ET at Truist Park in a Seven -Inning affair that will end a dual leadership for the teams today.

MLB odds show the Braves as a slight -125 home favorite, with the Cardinals moneyline coming back at +108. The over / under is 7.5, which suggests that odds makers don’t have much faith in today’s starting pitchers.

Cardinals vs. Braves odds

June 19th odds.

The pitching matchup isn’t going to give either manager a lot of confidence. Kwang-Hyung Kim plays for the guests while Atlanta counters with Drew Smyly.

Here’s how the likely starters play together on paper this season.

Probable pitchers

teamjugEPOCHWHIP
CardinalsKwang-Hyung Kim3.721.35
BravesDrew Smyly5.631.41

This is the final game in a four-game series for the teams. The Braves dominated the first two on Thursday (4: 0) and Friday (9: 1). In today’s matinee, Atlanta is again a small favorite (-121).

Best bets on Cardinals vs Braves

Both teams were under-challenged in the first third of the season. Both were favorites to win their division on opening day. The Cardinals are currently fourth in NL Central, 3.5 games behind league-leading Milwaukee.

Atlanta is third in NL East but 5.5 games back from the league-leading Mets.

The 32-year-old Korean importer Kwang-Hyun Kim will make his eleventh start to the season (19th appearance of his career). His last appearance was one of his best of the season, with six innings with three hits and one run, but that came at home against the bright marlins.

In his three previous starts, he gave up 10 earned runs in 13.2 innings of work. And his home-street division is worrying: he has a 2.66 ERA at Busch Stadium and a 4.84 ERA everywhere else.

This is the first time in his short career (19 appearances) against Atlanta.

Smyly’s divisions are equally worrying for purposes today. He’s posted 4.66 ERA on the road and a massive 7.54 ERA at home, albeit in just 19.1 innings of work.

His recent starts have been a little encouraging. After being shot at for seven runs in 5.1 innings in Boston on May 26, he has allowed eight earned runs in 13.2 innings on his next three starts.

The likely outcome here is a pretty high score game. The Atlanta offensive was one of the best in the league last season and it still has the same big bats waiting to really break out.

Getting plus money (+102) on a five-inning total of 5.5 is my game for the day.

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Sascha Paruk

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Sascha was a hockey player in his youth, a moody lawyer in his mid-twenties and has been commissioning editor, author and lead oddsmaker for SBD for over five years. It covers everything you could possibly bet on but specializes in soccer, baseball, hockey, and basketball.

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Sascha was a hockey player in his youth, a moody lawyer in his mid-twenties and has been commissioning editor, author and lead oddsmaker for SBD for over five years. It covers everything you could possibly bet on but specializes in soccer, baseball, hockey, and basketball.

Source * www.sportsbettingdime.com – * Source link

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Top 3 MLB Betting Picks for Sunday, June 20 (2021)

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top 3 mlb betting picks for sunday, june 20 (2021)

Welcome back for another Sunday. MLB’s crackdown on pitchers using foreign substances is set to officially begin tomorrow, but we’ve already seen a dramatic drop in spin rates and pitchers complaining about their inability to properly grip the ball. Red Sox starter Garrett Richards, for example, gave up his curveball completely on his last start. He stated that he couldn’t use sunscreen to improve his grip as the reason he didn’t even try to throw a litter that he usually threw more than 15% of the time. How this crackdown will affect the sports betting industry is still unclear, but I’ll keep an eye on pitchers with dramatic drops in their spin rates and most likely avoid unders for a few weeks.

Here are my top betting games for Sunday June 20th. Do you have any questions or want to talk about baseball or betting? Feel free to contact us on Twitter @mikeMaher.

Check out the best player prop bets for today’s slate with our MLB prop bets cheat sheet >>

Oakland Athletics ML (+120)

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Sean Manaea versus Jordan Montgomery. The A’s and Yankees rank 13th and 14th on the batting average against left-handers this season, and they’re four and five in left-handed homers of the year. The A’s beat .247 with 33 homers while the Yankees beat .245 with 31 homers. At least in terms of surface-level stats, these two teams are pretty evenly balanced against southpaws. Then it depends on the matchup. Montgomery has been perfect for the Yankees this season, with a 4.20 ERA and some underlying numbers that are a bit better. However, in his last 11 innings, he has allowed seven deserved runs. In the A’s, Sean Manaea was excellent in his last starts. Since May 18, Manaea has allowed one or less deserved runs in five starts in a row. He also never allowed a run in 12 innings at Yankee Stadium. At +120, Oakland is an easy call today.

Minnesota Twins ML (-118)

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A number of books have this at -120, but you can get it at -118 on FanDuel and DraftKings. The Twins have not been good this season, and neither have the Rangers. The twins should be better than they were as we expected the Rangers in 2021. The twins will go to the series sweep on Sunday, sending Kenta Maeda up the hill to make his second start since returning from the injured list. Maeda hasn’t been very good this season, but it sounds like he sustained a few injuries before finally landing on the IL. Now that he’s back and presumably healthy, hopefully Maeda should look more like the savvy right-handed man he has been for the past few seasons. For the Rangers, Dane Dunning has a 4.57 ERA and has not won a game since May 9th. He has also thrown five innings or fewer in five of his last six starts. In this case, roll with Maeda and the twins, who also just brought Byron Buxton back from the injured list.

Phillies Giants OVER 8.0 runs (-120)

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I have debated this over and over again in the Indian-pirate match. I have more faith in these two offenses and was happy to find a lower number which made the decision easier. In this matchup, Zach Eflin of the Phillies will meet Sam Long, who will make his first start for the Giants with long relief after two appearances. Long has allowed five earned runs over his first nine innings this season, including four earned runs over five innings on his last trip to the hill against the Diamondbacks. Eflin hasn’t won a start for the Phillies since May 7, and his ERA has steadily increased from 3.38 to 3.99. And last week the Giants have the second best team wOBA in baseball with 0.403. Philadelphia has a less consistent offense, but they have a lot of firepower in the middle of their lineup, especially with Rhys Hoskins and Andrew McCutchen heating up.

#Phillies Start Zach Eflin seeks his first win since May 7th against the San Francisco Giants today.

Since that win, Eflin is 0-4 in six starts. # Ring the bell

– Mike Maher. (@mikeMaher) June 20, 2021

That’s it for today. Do you have any questions or want to talk about baseball or betting? Feel free to contact us on Twitter @mikeMaher.

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Mike Maher is an editor and writer at FantasyPros and BettingPros. You can find more of Mike in his archive, follow him on Twitter @MikeMaherand visit his Philadelphia Eagles blog, The lightning bolt.

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